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Updated blogs: alex…. and PerfectPreflopPlay both at blogspot.com

Arquivo para o mês “agosto, 2012”

‘Relevant profit’ mode coming to Perfect Preflop Play for free!

Okay, so it’s an eight-handed table, you hold Deuces in the big blind and the button, who has been bullying everyone for the last three orbits because we’re close to reaching the money, again shoves around 25 BB from the button. You’re entirely certain he has a range not an inch tighter than the 31% range, and you must call you last 16.7 BB to go to showdown. Should you do it? 




Yes! Am I right?


Well, yes, but also…


What kind of player are you? How much is this bubble? Do you care about this particular mincash? Are you in a fighting mood, or do you really just want to guarantee a winning session?


Granted, in a perfect world where you always have thousands of buy-ins and no feelings regarding what happens, but instead you only focus on optimum play an the long run, the answer should be: fuck the bubble, I’ve read the situation well, I know what this guy is doing, calling is absolutely a positive-expectation play, not only immediately, but it may later stop people from messing with my blind, so I call.


But if those questions indeed bug your mind, it’s no fault of yours, and you’re not wrong to consider them – you are what is known in laymen’s terms as a human

 

A human.


The number 17.1 BB is the exact point where calling the bet against the 31% range is break-even, meaning calling 17.1 BB has the exact same expectation of folding – that is, to have 17.1 BB by the end of the hand when you fold, and to end the hand with a total 171,000 BB over 10,000 hands when you call (averaging 17.1 BB). Any number greater than that is unprofitable to call (your expectation is lower than folding), and any number smaller than that is profitable. And 16.7 is smaller, so this is a profitable call. But…


What Perfect Preflop Play (get it here) is neglecting to call you is, by how much? That is, if by calling my non-desperate stack of 16.7 BB I expect to end the hand with 16.8 BB but also expect to bust out before the bubble more than half the time, do I want to do it? I’m guessing most of you will answer “no.”

 



And that is why we’re coming up with a free update that is going to tell you what you really want to know: When does calling become so profitable that it’s a shame not to do it? 


It’s really simple. We’re not going to erase the information you currently find on PPP, but by messing around with the original formula just a little bit, we’re going to bring you a whole new mode that you can choose to show you at what point your call starts yielding an extra 5% to your stack, or an extra 1.5 BB for stacks bigger than 30 BB. 


So now that we demand to increase our stack by at least 5% to warrant making the call, what is the cutoff? For this precise situation, it’s 10.87 BB. That’s because, when you make the all-in call with 10.87 BB, the total effective pot becomes 25.04 BB, and you have 45.6% equity in that, which amounts to 11.42 BB, which is bigger than 10.87 BB by 0.55 BB, which is 5% of 10.87 BB.


So if you have 10.87 BB or less against this exact player in this spot, then by calling you are going to increase your stack by at least 5%, effectively turning the call into too good to miss. So from a practical standpoint, this update (which also includes 6-max mode) is going to make PPP a whole lot better, and for free. 


The “relevant profit” concept will also be applied to Heads-up Monster, to make sure you’re only shoving the small blind (especially with a decent stack) when there’s enough to gain from it. 

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Heads-up Monster coming soon as a paid update

We have decided that our Q scale for classifying hands in their preflop shoving strength, albeit a powerful tool for keeping your game consistent and stopping you from going stray and making any horrible mistakes, was still not enabling you to take advantage of every single blind versus blind opportunity(mind you, if you play heads-up poker, by blind versus blind I mean every single hand played; if you play non-heads-up poker, I mean every time it is folded around to you in the small blind, which is still thousands of hands a year, and of course, also every time you get heads-up from a bigger SNG or MTT).

Well, enough of that. Heads-up push/fold poker is just about as finite as it gets for no-limit hold’em, so as it turns out, there is a formula, and we found it. There is some heavy lifting involved, so this PPP (app store link) update may take a while to come out, but we are confident it will revolutionize how you play the game. A lot of the results provided are incredible, as in you would have never, in a million years, guessed you can play that hand that way. We were in disbilief too, but the formulas have been triple-checked and there isn’t a single hole.

This will be like nothing you have ever seen. It’s not your old “shove this for 7BB” shtick – no, that’s far too simple. We are way more ambitious. We are talking how much you can shove with any hand, against any of the six ranges your opponent may call you with, for any number of antes posted.

And as you know, Perfect Preflop Play is not about creating idiot human bots. Your intelligence comes into play in that your notes and feel for the game are going to help you gauge what range your foe may call you with. We’re talking about abusing an opponent who just can’t bring himself to call with less than AT, while showing (proving, actually) that maybe you have to let the same hand go if you have a more perceptive adversary who can adjust and look you up more often. We’re talking playing T4s in the small blind against Phil Ivey in the big blind and not losing money. We’re talking never again making a negative expectation play heads-up preflop.

Heads-up Monster will integrate seamlessly with PPP for just an extra $1.99, and you will have options as to how to see its results only when useful, so as to not slow down the already awesome PPP experience. For that value you will also get another exclusive Perfect Preflop Play book, that will explain to you all of the math behind Heads-up Monster and is sure to make you a believer. We’re also going to tackle other important issues, to build on the foundation laid by the original PPP book, which comes free with the main app. If you know some of our work, you know we’re onto something. We want to evolve with you, and we’re just getting started.

So what’s a close call worth?

I won’t try to fool you here: tournament structures bend the values of chips. You should be well aware of it, but chances are you are, because, well, every player is. The clearest example of this is satellites. In satellites you often have from a few to hundreds of prizes that are worth the same – you have many people tied for first. Say a satellite awards seven seats to the Sunday Million. There’s no three-handed or heads-up play. There will be no champion. The tournament ends the exact moment someone busts out in eighth, and at that point the player who has 10 million chips gets the same as the one who was holding tight with one ante left – although the first guy was probably a lot less stressed toward the end.

It’s common for people with some seven big blinds to fold AK, QQ or even AA in this sort of position, which would normally be preposterous. Of course, with Queens you have the expectation to win chips if you open-shove 7 BB, so why would you open-fold them? In such a satellite bubble, the answer is almost always this: you think someone else is going to bust first, maybe this very hand, and you are not the chip leader, so by folding you make sure you are not all-in this hand, and you may win your ticket by just waiting around. Since you are not going to keep playing down to a single winner, there is no more need for chip accumulation. If there is one player all-in in the big blind, then automatically the goal of every other player is to knock him out, simply because it would be the quickest, safest way for everybody (but him) to get what they want.

Normal, single-table sit-and-gos have that too, but to a smaller degree. If three are paid and there are four left and one guy is supershort, then the other two non-chip leaders often want to refrain from risky moves before they see if he doubles up or busts – thus guaranteeing the other players a cash.

But look! There is a major different between this SNG and the satellite, and that difference is that there will be an actual winner, meaning you should still take the occasional very profitable chance if it’s not entirely obvious the shortest guy is gonna bust out in fourth. I mean, if he has a half big blind left and he’s the big blind next hand, that is a clear situation where he has no choice but to be all-in in what is looking like a pretty terrible spot, but things are not so clear if you have 8 BB and he has 6 BB.

Many aggressive players (and even some passive ones, in a complete 180) will go absolutely crazy here. You should not. I mean, they have the chip lead with 4 left and one guy shorter then the other two, and they start shoving 100% of their hands. My friend, you should be aware that this is just almost never good. You either don’t have such a big lead, and getting called by someone with you embarrassing 94o would cripple you terribly, or you do have a big lead, you’re completely comfortable, you are gonna cash almost surely, and there is no need to spew chips like a retard! Even if the two medium stacks are cowards, remember that at least the shortest one is probably looking for a good spot to triple up, and you are handing it to him, just like that, and maybe turning a hopeless situation into a game where everyone has chances.

With Perfect Preflop Play you will be very well equipped to deal with the idiot push-every-hand chip leader. After five straight pushes you can easily put him on the “psycho” range (and that’s if you wanna be cautious, because he may have the all-hands range), and by taking one second to type in your hand, you will be surprised at how many good calls you can make with stuff like 98s and K2s.

But there is one money bubble where chip values are not distorted, and that’s the last one, when you’re heads-up. Let’s take the actual numbers from a 9-player, $15 knockout SNG on Pokerstars. Second place gets $30.45 and first gets $50.77, but since the winner will be necessarily be knocking out the runner-up and not be knocked out himself, he also wins two bounties for his win, so we’re gonna count first place as $56.41, so this is a $25.96 bubble between second and first.


There is no more waiting around, of course, because there isn’t a third player to knock out the other guy for you. We can, in fact, interpret the $30.45 as a thing of the past. You are both fighting just for that $25.96. This is now the same as fixed-buy-in heads-up cash game that only ends when one player loses their buy-in. 13,500 chips is worth exactly (no relativity) $25.96; 0 chips is worth $0.

So before you two post for this hand you both have 6,750 chips, and since there is no distortion your expectation (disregarding skill disparity) is $12.98. The blinds are 300 / 600 with a 50 ante and you’re the big blind. Your opponent is definitely capable of stealing, and he’s been very active, and there is just no better spot to steal than heads-up with short stacks, so you’re not gonna give him much respect for his raises – unless he starts folding the button several times. You pick up QJs and he goes all-in. From the description you should put your opponent on the “loose” or “psycho” range (you should seldom assume the all-hands range unless a player is ultrashort or in maniac mode; remember you are never being cautious if you assume 100% of hands – you’re either right or you’re optimistic).

Well, against the “loose range” PPP will tell you that you need 1.11 to 1 or greater to call, and that you can call up to around 20 big blinds. There are no more players that can bust if you fold, so this is just a plain positive-expectation call, so you call. Needing 1.11 to 1 means you are gonna win one time in 2.11, or 47.43% of the time. So your equity in this 13,500 pot is 6,403 chips, which, of course, is better than retaining your 6,100 by folding.

Since each chip has a fixed dollar value, it’s obvious that 6,100 chips are worth $11.73 and that 6,403 chips are worth $12.09. So 36 cents is what you gain by calling here against the “loose” range. Doesn’t sound like much, but this is meant as an example of a close call. Short-stack heads-up play can be very brutal in that every pot conceded increases you disadvantage by a lot, so you must be ready to take a stand against aggresive players soon, or not at all.

Perfect Preflop Play free for a few minutes

Get it here now, http://itunes.apple.com/br/app/perfect-preflop-play-ferramenta/id549569867?mt=8. Please write a review.

Play every coinflip you can

Okay, this is pretty basic stuff, so if you may just skip it if you have any grounds to say you’re at least an intermediate player, or if you’ve read Perfect Preflop Play’s book (http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/perfect-preflop-play-poker/id549569867?l=pt&ls=1&mt=8). That’s the real useful theory, as well as the app itselft, which will give you concrete numbers against each preflop range.
However, this here is to address a wrong mindset, and while I’m at it I guess I’m gonna name it. Let’s call it the Phil Hellmuth mindset. Now, this is not meant as an attack on Phil Hellmuth, but the name is appropriate. It’s tough to argue against his 12 bracelets (sick, right?), but we ought not to be blinded by them either. A lot of great players say Phil plays horribly, and I agree. This is simply because, even though Phil is well aware of the math of the game, he feels it does not apply to him.
That’s just fucked up. I mean, he raise-folds 13 BB with Queens, he folds a straight flush draw on the flop if he thinks he’s flippling against a set, etc. I won’t even get into how dreadfully horrible such plays are. I’ll just tell you that, at least with large blinds, you should always play every coinflip you can get your hands on!
Now, wait a second. If you’ve read some articles in this blog or the PPP book, you know that isn’t quite how it works, because you always have a defined hand (yours) against a range (opponent’s), so you don’t analyse hands like “I have KQo versus Fives,” but rather “I need 1.18 to 1 with my KQo versus the 17% range,” which is actually a number that PPP gives you in two seconds to help you decide and play accurately in real time.
But you do hear some people say, “I avoid coinflips,” and Hellmuth is the most high-profile of those players. So, if you somehow know that you’re gonna play a coinflip, here’s why you should always play it.
First, in a coinflip you are usually a little under or a little over 50% to win. And because of the way that poker betting works, you should always take a bet where you’re a little over 50%, and almost always take a bet where you’re a little under that.
First, let’s take an actual coinflip, with a coin. You and your friend each bet 1 dollar on each side. Needless to say, this is a break-even bet. You have one chance in two (50%) to win, which breaks even for a bet of one to one ($1 versus $1). Now let’s give you Fives in the big blind, and your opponent JTo on the button.  There are antes in play at an 8-player table so the starting pot is 2.3 BB, and he has 10 BB behind against the 9 BB you have after posting. This is the closest matchup I could find to an actualy coinflip (each hand is almost exacly 50% to win). Now the button goes all-in for 10 BB and you know his exact hand and you must call 9 BB to stay in the hand. Should you do it.
This is the point, and I hope you get it. It really doesn’t matter what player you are (sorry, Phil). There is a mathmatical truth to the situation. You should definitely call, because, even though having 55 vs JTo is just like having heads versus tails, you are no longer getting 1 to 1. The way poker betting is designed, there are always forced bets (blinds, antes) before play begins. But when you call someone’s bet, you only need to match their bet in order to be elligible to win the money left behind by others. In this case you would be calling 9 BB to try to win the current pot of 12.3 BB. Because the blinds are high relative to the stacks, the amount the pot is laying you is a big deal (unlike calling 60 BB to win 62.3 BB), and now you’re getting a whopping 1.37 to 1! Meaning you would break even if you had as little as 42.2% equity. So calling with 50% should be a no-brainer. Your expectation is to end this hand with 50% of the resulting 21.3 BB pot, which is 10.65, instead of the 9BB you would retain by folding. Calling is a great play, and folding is an awful mistake.
And that’s it. You should definitely play a lot of coinflips with high blinds, because of the simple fact that the pot in poker is always giving you more than 1 to 1. You never have to be an actual favorite in order to play profitably!

Major price drop just this Sunday for Perfect Preflop Play

Just so people get to know what Perfect Preflop Play is all about, we’re selling it for $1.99 instead of $6.99 just for the next 24 hours. Get it at the app store here, http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/perfect-preflop-play-poker/id549569867?l=pt&ls=1&mt=8

and please write a review after you do the rounds with it. Go to our Facebook page to ask us any questions.

Perfect Preflop Play available for iPhone

Apple just approved my poker app for iPhone. It’s called Perfect Preflop Play (PPP for short). It’s an app that contains a tool to help you make correct decisions preflop, especially for SNGs and MTTs, and to a lesser extent for cash games. The app includes a book available both in English and Portuguese, which discusses with great clarity all of the concepts relevant to the successful use of the app, and which will enhance your general understanding of poker

The direct app store link is: http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/perfe…l=pt&ls=1&mt=8

Our blog, http://perfectpreflopplay.blogspot.com.br/, already features a bunch of articles.

Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Perfec…35979373147402

Be my guest to ask questions from within the FB page. My idea is for it to be a much more complete experience than just an app, but rather to do everything possible to form players with great understanding of what they’re doing. There’s also our Youtube channel, http://www.youtube.com/user/PerfectP…y?feature=mhee. We’ll put out more videos and articles according to popular demand.

Thanks.

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